History’s Warning Signs: 4 Alarming Parallels to a New World War
In his recent TED talk, “Are We Heading Toward World War III?”, geopolitical analyst Heni Ozi Cukier moves beyond simple historical comparisons. Instead, he presents a powerful framework for understanding our current moment by identifying troubling patterns that have preceded global conflicts in the past.
The talk examines four key dimensions of life—social, economic, political, and military—and analyzes them across three critical periods: the years preceding World War I, the years preceding World War II, and the present day. By examining these dimensions in parallel, Cukier reveals a chilling convergence of trends that historically precede global catastrophe.
The Social Anxiety of Progress
Cukier’s first point is that major technological revolutions, while offering incredible benefits, consistently produce widespread social anxiety, resentment, and instability. He traces this pattern across three eras. Before WWI, the Second Industrial Revolution transformed life but also replaced workers with machines and challenged traditional authorities like churches and monarchies, leading to insecurity. Decades later, the communications revolution before WWII, combined with fears of “technological unemployment,” became a powerful tool for propaganda that amplified social fears and polarized societies. Today, the digital revolution, driven by AI and social media, is “amplifying frustrations, fears and divisions faster than ever before” through concerns over job loss, privacy, and surveillance.
Historically, such anxieties have made societies more unstable and vulnerable to extreme ideologies that fuel militarism and war.
When Economics Fails to Keep the Peace
A common assumption is that deep economic ties prevent war, as conflict would be mutually destructive. Cukier argues that history proves this assumption dangerously flawed. Before WWI, strong trade links between Britain and Germany were ultimately overruled by political factors like fear and ambition.
Economics may explain what can be done, but politics decides what will be done.
Cukier’s second point is that nations are driven less by absolute wealth and more by relative power. The key concern is being wealthier and more powerful than their rivals. Before WWII, Germany and Japan pursued aggressive policies of self-sufficiency because they felt they were gaining less from the global economic system than their rivals, making them feel vulnerable. Today, after the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nations are once again questioning their economic interdependence. The result is a global shift towards “self-sufficiency and economic nationalism, just like before World War II.”
The Dangerous Spiral of Political Division
Cukier warns that when political polarization escalates, it can lead to its most destructive form: political violence. This happens when factions lose faith in institutions and form armed groups to settle disputes. This dangerous pattern has clear historical precedents:
• In the Balkans before WWI, years of political violence in a fractured society culminated in the assassination that triggered the war.
• In Germany’s Weimar Republic before WWII, instability grew as all political factions, from the right, the center and the left, had their own militias.
• Today, events like the January 6th attack on the US Capitol serve as stark warning signs. Cukier notes that this threat is systemic, citing “several assassination attempts against President Trump” as evidence that “polarization and violence in the United States is coming from all sides.” He also points to a “big surge in political violence in Germany.”
…once armed groups emerge, compromise becomes impossible and conflict inevitable.
The Alarming Math of Modern Alliances
While internal social, economic, and political decay creates the conditions for conflict, Cukier argues the final, critical factor is how nations align themselves on the world stage. World wars, he explains, rarely start as global conflicts. They begin as regional wars that escalate into worldwide disasters because of alliances. Today, he identifies several potential triggers: Russia in Ukraine, Iran’s proxy wars, and a potential conflict over Taiwan.
However, the most critical point Cukier makes is a chilling asymmetry between today’s alliances and those of the past. The Axis powers of the 1930s (Germany, Italy, Japan) were often uncoordinated and even worked against each other. In stark contrast, today’s “Axis of Dictatorships” (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran) is “really united, much more than the axis of the ’30s.” Cukier provides undeniable proof of their integration:
• Who sends ammunition, weapons and even soldiers to help Russia fight Ukraine? North Korea.
• Who gives food and energy to North Korea? China.
• Who buys Iran’s sanctioned oil? China.
• Who buys Russia’s gas? China.
• And China supplies Russia with electronic equipment to keep its war.
Meanwhile, he argues, the opposing alliance of democracies is becoming “divided and weak.” When the aggressor’s alliance grows stronger while the opposing alliance weakens, the “incentives for the aggressors to strike, they are really big.”
Connecting the Dots of History
Cukier is clear that he is not predicting an “inevitable destiny.” Rather, he offers a framework to “connect the dots” by recognizing historical patterns that have repeatedly led to catastrophe. By understanding these repeating trends in our social, economic, political, and military spheres, we might be better equipped to avoid the mistakes of the past.
History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Sources
The analysis and quotes in this article are from the TED talk, “Are We Heading Toward World War III?” by Heni Ozi Cukier, available on the official TED YouTube channel.
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